By 2035, light vehicles will be very different, and experts are not even sure whether we still call them "cars." Carla Bailo, president and chief executive officer of the Automotive Research Center (CAR) in Ann Arbor, Michigan, suggested that perhaps a "personal mobile device" could be a "personal mobile device." More important is the fundamental change in auto parts manufacturing.

Let's start with a prediction that seems to be agreed by everyone in the industry, although this requires a large-scale shift in the types of parts and components needed to make cars: by 2035, at least half of the cars made in the United States will be fully electric. Bailo said this is a realistic estimate, and some people would think it is pessimistic. She added that the ratio in China and Europe will be much higher than 50%.

Why? Governments all over the world are forcing changes. Automakers have invested so much in this technology that experts like Bailo say that batteries are likely to reach the required energy density by 2035 to satisfy even Americans who are concerned about mileage.

Tom Kelly, executive director and CEO of Automation Alley, Troy, Michigan, believes that by 2035, most consumers will conclude that internal combustion engine (ICE) cars are a bad choice. "They will think,'I feel bad about myself. My neighbor will humiliate me. It is more expensive. It has fewer functions. So after a period of slow growth, electric cars will take off because you have reached At a tipping point, you will actually be embarrassed to drive the internal combustion engine.” Automation Alley is a non-profit industry 4.0 knowledge center and the World Economic Forum Advanced Manufacturing Center (AMHUB).

As mentioned above, most experts believe that smaller electric vehicles will be powered by batteries rather than hydrogen fuel cells. But the latter technology is more promising for large vehicles. Bailo explained that launching a large-scale hydrogen fuel infrastructure will be more difficult and expensive compared to electric charging stations. Instead, she pointed out that the fundamental difference between heavy vehicles and light vehicles is that you don’t want them to park for a long time to charge. "I just don't know the economic benefits of battery electric semi trucks. But fuel cells may be really beneficial." Brent Marsh, automotive business development manager at Sandvik Coromant Mayban, North Carolina, suggests earthmoving equipment as another example . "These machines need high power density. Maybe they switch to hydrogen."

Obviously, we will build fewer ICEs and more-not to mention simpler-electric motors and battery boxes. Other than that, it started to get a little fuzzy.

For example, Marsh said that the transmission is "up in the air." Many different drive mechanisms are being considered. You can install a motor at the front of the vehicle, or install a motor at the rear to drive the front and rear separately. You can use one electric motor to drive all the wheels, as we do today, or there is an electric motor on each wheel. That could be a motor generator on each wheel. There can be planetary gears. …There are many ways to develop power transmission devices and motor units, and it takes time on the market to find the best method. "

Marsh added that Sandvik Coromant sees new opportunities in this environment due to the very short product life cycle. "Someone will prepare something, let it last for a few years, and then take a different path. We have envisioned a lot of tools and reorganizations and tools and reorganizations over and over again."

For many years, automobile lightweighting has been an obsession, and it will continue within certain limits. Bailo said that research shows that the metallurgical industry continues to make progress. Due to the existence of ultra-high-strength steel, the steel industry poses a strong challenge to aluminum. "Both industries are starting to provide excellent products that can significantly reduce weight." But she does not expect mass production of carbon fiber composites by 2035, because manufacturing costs will be seven times higher.

Marsh said that everything related to power transmission must be made of steel, including "gears, shafts and even bearings, which are turning to ultra-clean steel with extremely low sulfur content. Some people call them "IQ", or isotropic high-quality steel. The reduction in sulfur greatly improves the fatigue strength of steel. Therefore, you can produce smaller shafts, smaller bearings, and smaller gears that handle the same power density. This reduces the weight and size of the components, but is more difficult to machine ."

Marsh added that Sandvik Coromant is working with steel producers to develop suitable tool materials, geometries and coatings. And chip control is a bigger problem than usual. "They must be relatively sharp tools, like the tools you use to cut stainless steel. But sharp edges are usually weaker edges, so this is a challenge."

Generally speaking, cemented carbide tools are the first choice for cutting these steels, Marsh explained, “unless the parts are induction or laser hardened bearing surfaces or similar. In that case, we would use advanced tools such as CBN or ceramics. Materials.” On the other hand, Marsh also drew attention to the high demand for cobalt in battery production, which will push up the price of cemented carbide. "We know that the supply of cobalt is limited. Therefore, we and others are trying to figure out whether future carbides will be binderless."

Bailo said that CAR's research shows that in the past decade, improvements in materials that reduce weight have been offset to some extent by new features that add comfort or safety. Likewise, batteries with higher power density will reduce the need to drive more weight loss. Marsh also said that considering the nature of automobile transportation, weight loss has reached a level of diminishing returns. "You must have the weight of gravity to keep the vehicle on the ground. We are not building airplanes. You can only make the car so light."

This has brought us another profound change, which will affect everything from the mixing of materials used to manufacture automotive parts to their design, their manufacturing locations and manufacturers: additive manufacturing (AM).

By 2035, “AM will produce a staggering number of auto parts,” said Terry Wohlers, chief consultant and president of Wohlers Associates, an additive manufacturing consulting firm based in Fort Collins, Colorado. part. This, combined with other advantages, will make the use of AM by OEMs and their suppliers attractive. "He explained that one of the other benefits is the ability to further reduce the weight of certain components. "Topological optimization and lattice structure can reduce materials and weight, sometimes significantly. Wohlers also pointed out that AM can replace assemblies with a single complex part. "Integrating multiple parts into one part reduces the number of parts, manufacturing processes, inventory, and labor. "

When Wallers said "the number of auto parts is amazing," he may have underestimated this. Kelly of Automation Alley believes that by 2035, “the only time no additives will be used will be for reasons other than price, such as large metal stampings. Since Henry Ford created the assembly line, additive manufacturing has been the most important in 100 years. This is basically what we have been doing.” In Kelly’s view, compared with subtractive manufacturing, additive manufacturing has many advantages, but there is only one disadvantage: unit cost. He said that this disadvantage is quickly disappearing.

For example, consider using EOS' LaserProFusion technology to print plastic parts. According to Jon Walker, EOS North America business development manager in Novi, Michigan, this upcoming method is five times faster than the company's fastest business machine, which itself is twice as fast as the previous generation machine.

"The current technology of plastic additive manufacturing uses one or two CO2 lasers internally, depending on the size of the machine. Generally speaking, you can increase the speed based on the number of lasers added to the system. Therefore, the speed of four lasers It’s almost four times that of a laser. However, instead of interfering two 70-W CO2 lasers into the machine, by switching to small 5-W laser diodes, we can arrange 980,000 lasers in the same space. For example, we Instead of using two high-power lasers, 1 million small lasers are used. They can make 100 parts on the entire bed, and each laser works independently. Or, if you are building a large part, all 980,000 lasers are You can work together on this large component." Walker said that the commercialization of this technology will be "a huge turning point for the industry." However, he is also convinced that by 2035, the production life of the machine will end and a faster system will be introduced at that time.

In addition, as Kelly said, “Fast is relative. Even if the machine is slow, if I have 10,000 machines and I can produce 10,000 parts per day, that’s another equation. Automation Alley just established a A network of 300 printers is called Project DIAMOND. Every manufacturer has the same printer and they use it to make money. But when we need to use all 300, we can make 300 parts at a time. We expect this network to be It has grown to thousands. By then, this is no longer a parts problem, but a logistics problem-how to aggregate the output of all these suppliers." Kelly believes that this is not only a problem that can be solved, but also this distribution Type manufacturing has advantages-and it is the future.

"I think the manufacturing industry will change from centralized, expensive and capital-intensive to democratic, agile, and independent.... The reason why we choose these large assembly plants or large manufacturers is that they must be carefully set up to make a truly outstanding one. Parts. The advantage of addition is that you can make small parts from 9 to 10, and then make knee cartilage from 10 to 11. Then you can make aircraft back seat trays from 11 to 12. Once you have the ability to 3D print, according to With the required materials, you can manufacture anything in any industry in the world anytime, anywhere."

EOS's Walker also believes that the factory may be centered on a material rather than an industry like automobiles. "Bridgestone now has a department that produces golf balls, tires, and industrial roofs-these three industries have nothing to do with each other. But Bridgestone's core competitiveness is the chemical reaction surrounding these elastic materials. Even small Companies can also get incredible efficiency in 3D printing specific materials. If they can find a common use for the material in different vertical industries, that's where on-demand manufacturing comes into play."

More importantly, Kelly assumes that Wall Street will not fund companies that do a good job. A production line can only be profitable if it continues to produce for four years. "These companies will be forced to shut down... Additives will get capital, even if it has been inefficient for years. Wall Street will fund Additives because they are predicting where the world will go. It's like funding Tesla instead of funding General Motors."

In order to avoid your belief that this tsunami can be avoided, or that this is just a fanatical dream of some misled hedge fund managers, Kelly said that he recently had a conversation with an automotive OEM executive who said that his company is very interested in AM. And I'm very disappointed that the Tier 1 supplier doesn't do this, and I don't understand what happened. "They won't come to us to talk about their additive farm and how to use it to make our products... how they innovate new ways to do this," the executive told Kelly. "They are afraid rather than opportunistic."

Kelly explained that the problem with layer 1 is that AM is very easy to understand. "This is time and material, this is public knowledge. You cannot hide the cost of the production line. The original equipment manufacturer knows exactly how much time it takes to print it and how much powder is needed. They know the spot price of the powder. So you are just arguing about you How much profit needs to be made, and this is a very fragile position for Tier 1, because most of the time they are organizing Tier 2 and Tier 3. But now, the golden age of level 2 or 3 is coming. They actually A relationship can be established with General Motors or Ford because the computer will handle all the complexity."

Walker said that with the development of electric vehicles, AM also "do nothing." "Within a 10-mile drive from our office in Novi, there may be five companies with extensive experience in designing crankshafts and the like. They may have had this capability for 100 years. But for electric vehicles, there are a lot of us. New parts that have never been manufactured before.” This opens up the field for all kinds of new entrants. Walker also mentioned the skateboard architecture used in electric vehicles, in which the electric motor, battery, suspension and steering system are embedded in some standard configurations, and the human body and everything that humans often contact can be customized. "Additives are very suitable for specific niche markets, when our output is low and the unit cost is high."

Both Bailo and Kelly believe that because digital manufacturing can achieve mass customization, customers will ask for it. Or to be more precise, only companies that take advantage of the continuous improvement and customization supported by AM can survive.

Bello said that this has already happened. Hongguang Mini is quickly taking to the streets of China, and it has easily surpassed Tesla in sales in recent months, partly because the company is willing to do whatever it wants to do in terms of styling for its customers. (See the Mini photo on the first page of this article.) And it's not just color. Want your car to be covered by wallpaper patterns? no problem. cartoon character? Same as above. Bailo said she had heard of a car owner who spent more than $2,000 to cover the interior of the car with brown velvet cloth, and there were dozens of sparkling lights on the roof lining. The Mini sells for only US$4,200, so this buyer is willing to pay 35% more for customization.

Bailo said: "People will not wait for a five-year life cycle, or even a two-year life cycle to make small changes." "Look at Tesla's approach: smaller size, rapid product changes, and short development cycles to eliminate To meet the demand for hard tools. Soft tools made of additives can be used. People will want to customize these products, just as they can customize their mobile phones today. You will need short-term parts in different colors. For carpooling services, you Parts will need to be replaced, and these parts must be made quickly on site. Many courier companies will maintain it themselves. Therefore, additives will play a role."

Unlike Kelly, Bailo does not necessarily believe that AM will take over large quantities of parts-such as most of the skateboard. But for man-machine interface, this will be essential. She believes that most buyers don't care who is making what behind the scenes now. And "in the future, the propulsion system will become more commoditized. Everyone thinks this is their secret weapon because it is extremely competitive in terms of mileage and range. But in the end it will not become the internal combustion engine of today."

She hopes to see platform optimization and platform sharing, and customization appears in the "top hat". Bailo said, “The way the vehicle interacts with you, the comfort of the creatures, is what drives you to choose this brand,” explains Bailo. "And more and more are human-machine interfaces. Nowadays, 25% of car buyers will not test drive their vehicles, but they do want to make sure their phones can be paired."

As Bailo sees it, "The companies that will succeed in the future are those companies that understand how to analyze risks and then establish a supply chain to manage the risks.... This does not mean that everything will be locally manufactured. But (the company) will be very strategic This is done based on factors that they believe will put them at risk if they are not localized." Kelly's concept of a distributed network of AM sites would be a huge help.

Wohlers agrees that “additive manufacturing will help simplify the supply chain for certain types of parts”, but warns that “certifying suppliers will take years. The pandemic has prompted OEMs to move in this direction, so this process is ongoing China.” One would think that automotive certification for many additive manufacturing components will mature in 2035. After all, as Walker pointed out, we already use additive manufacturing components in our bodywork and commercial aircraft (including key jet engine components). If the medical community and the FAA can certify AM processes and parts, so can cars.

Another almost hidden aspect of AM helps protect the supply chain: its simplicity and stability relative to subtractive processing. As Walker said, "Our system is very repeatable because it is all laser technology. It is not like CNC machine tools, the ball screw will move and wear over time.... Each ball screw, from the sequence Number to serial number, the way of movement is slightly different. Maybe the motor driving the ball screw is worn out, etc.... There are no moving parts in our machine. You have a laser and galvanometer, once you set your If you are satisfied, you can transfer it to other systems, and it will repeat very well. AM will enable many companies that are not first-tier automakers today to become large-scale automotive suppliers in the future."